Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:56:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

91 0x91b9…3ab4 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$8,645 (+40%) realized +$6,159 · open +$2,486

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate57%4W / 3L

Drawdown14%max

Avg bet$2,395per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$179est.

Kalshi-fit78%portable

Net worth$9,486now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)+5.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+16.6%	+5.5%	57%	57%	+43.6%
≤30d	7	+16.6%	+5.5%	57%	57%	+43.6%
≤90d	7	+16.6%	+5.5%	57%	57%	+43.6%
all	7	+16.6%	+5.5%	57%	57%	+43.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~12%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+5.5%	57%	+43.6%
10% ← realistic here	-4.6%	57%	+29.8%
15%	-13.8%	57%	+17.3%
20%	-22.3%	57%	+5.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 49% · top 2 83% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +59% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt +59% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2,422 vs −$403 · ×6.01 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×8.01 per $1 lost it wins $8.01

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$9,486

Realized+$6,159

Unrealized+$2,486

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses4 / 3

Est. fees paid−$179

Open positions2

Markets (closed)7 / 9

History coverage2d

Avg bet$2,395

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown14%

Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Côte dIvoire	60¢	90¢	$4,000	$6,033	+$2,033 (+51%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5	Under	63¢	72¢	$3,000	$3,452	+$452 (+15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	Jun 20	$457	+$949	+208%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5	Jun 20	$5,060	+$3,293	+65%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$1,018	−$1,000	-98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Jun 20	$205	−$200	-97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$6,712	+$4,705	+70%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$1,013	+$741	+73%
Spread: Canada (-3.5)	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	63¢	$3,033	1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Côte dIvoire	60¢	$4,048	1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5	SELL Under	100¢	$8,353	18h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	BUY Yes	32¢	$306	18h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	BUY Yes	31¢	$151	18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	39¢	$1,018	20h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$205	20h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5	BUY Under	60¢	$5,060	20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$11,417	20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$2,995	23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$3,717	23h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	57¢	$1,013	26h
Spread: Canada (-3.5)	BUY Qatar	30¢	$10	46h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,485.71 · official $9,428.57 (match) · 15 history records