Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:49:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
91 0x91b6…309e crypto 200 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$40 (+1%) realized +$38 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%194W / 3L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$33
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$33
sports 2% +$2
finance 1% $0
other 1% +$1
politics 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 192 +1.5% -8.2% 98% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 197 +1.5% -8.2% 98% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 197 +1.5% -8.2% 98% 0% -8.3%
all 197 +1.5% -8.2% 98% 0% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 0% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 0% -17.1%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.1%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses194 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)197 / 200
History coverage9d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate Primary by less than 10%? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 96¢ $10 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $15 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 23h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 99¢ $20 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.98 · official $47.98 (match) · 397 history records