Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:54:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91b5…26d6 world 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$6
other 12% −$2
politics 12% −$1
sports 8% $0
weather 4% $0
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +62.4% +47.0% 44% 11% -7.1%
≤90d 9 +62.4% +47.0% 44% 11% -7.1%
all 20 +19.3% +8.0% 45% 10% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.0% 10% -8.5%
10% -2.4% 10% -17.3%
15% -11.8% 5% -25.3%
20% -20.4% 5% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 85% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage468d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $33 +$3 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $31 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $39 +$3 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $33 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 08 $1 $0 +27%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $14 $0 -1%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
French Open: Alcaraz vs. Džumhur May 31 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $16 $0 +1%
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 39-40°F on March 8? Mar 11 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $38 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $38 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $7 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $28 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $0 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 63¢ $18 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 63¢ $15 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 48¢ $6 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 48¢ $13 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 48¢ $5 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 48¢ $14 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $30 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $1 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $31 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $21 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $19 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $32 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $32 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 66¢ $21 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 63¢ $20 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $33 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $33 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 27d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 91¢ $13 356d
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $2 359d
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes $1 374d
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes $1 374d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.84 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records