Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:11:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91b5…d0a4 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+5%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$1
other 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -3.7% -12.9% 50% 50% -11.2%
≤30d 12 -3.7% -12.9% 50% 50% -11.2%
≤90d 12 -3.7% -12.9% 50% 50% -11.2%
all 12 -3.7% -12.9% 50% 50% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 50% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 33% -19.7%
15% -28.9% 33% -27.5%
20% -35.8% 17% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $9 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records