Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:01:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

91
0x91ad…a5ca
sports · 296 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$23,459 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$23,201 · open −$258
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$258
Realized−$23,201
Unrealized−$258
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses89 / 205
Whale WR (big bets)28%
Est. fees paid−$929
Open positions2
Markets (closed)294 / 296
History coverage197d
Avg bet$438
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 2 History 294 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,365
7 days−$2,471
14 days−$9,363
30 days−$7,393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $517 $258 −$258 (-50%)
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Marta Kostyuk 54¢ 0¢ $363 $0 −$363 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Zverev Mensik 40¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $213 $0 −$213 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? No 6¢ 0¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 60¢ 0¢ $2,629 $0 −$2,629 (-100%)
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $497 $0 −$497 (-100%)
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Under 56¢ 0¢ $611 $0 −$611 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Joao Fonseca 47¢ 0¢ $4,396 $0 −$4,396 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Rafael Jodar 3¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $3,078 −$1,759 -57%
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 12 $31 −$16 -53%
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 12 $35 −$27 -76%
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 12 $37 −$18 -48%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 12 $26 −$5 -18%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $104 −$13 -12%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $437 −$18 -4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $338 −$9 -3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $3,927 −$354 -9%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Jun 11 $706 −$52 -7%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 11 $382 −$32 -8%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $89 −$10 -12%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $91 −$10 -11%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $309 −$42 -14%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 11 $237 −$40 -17%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Jun 10 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $73 −$71 -97%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $107 +$7 +7%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Zverev Jun 05 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 04 $1,008 +$379 +38%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $363 −$363 -100%
Will Anna Kalinskaya win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $543 −$442 -82%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $1,934 −$1,934 -100%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $300 +$128 +43%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $2,660 −$2,629 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $16,843 −$3,719 -22%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $594 +$16 +3%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $617 −$611 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $82 −$80 -97%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $279 −$279 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 02 $34 −$34 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Jun 02 $42 −$42 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 02 $43 −$43 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 02 $34 −$34 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 02 $77 −$77 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $131 −$131 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $128 −$128 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 02 $186 −$186 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 02 $384 −$176 -46%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta Jun 02 $282 −$282 -100%
Will Victoria Mboko win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 02 $28 −$28 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 02 $57 −$57 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $195 −$137 -70%
Will Naomi Osaka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 02 $209 −$209 -100%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $166 −$166 -100%
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 02 $219 −$213 -97%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $182 +$118 +65%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $2,388 +$2,246 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 56% −$12,789
world 19% −$8,772
politics 15% +$3,053
other 7% −$4,030
crypto 2% −$408
culture 0% −$513
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $513 2h
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $15 28h
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 28h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $19 28h
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 2¢ $22 28h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $91 34h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $209 34h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $330 34h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 14¢ $1,239 35h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $209 35h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House SELL Yes 34¢ $132 35h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 43¢ $143 35h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $79 35h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $81 36h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $267 36h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House SELL Yes 34¢ $99 38h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 45¢ $23 39h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 47¢ $33 39h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 47¢ $56 39h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 47¢ $56 42h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 17¢ $33 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $515 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $437 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $338 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $104 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $91 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $89 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $309 2d
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $37 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -24.7% -31.8% 6% 0% -31.6%
≤30d 133 -21.9% -29.3% 26% 24% -30.2%
≤90d 187 -16.2% -24.2% 28% 27% -42.2%
all 294 -15.3% -23.4% 30% 29% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 29% -28.8%
10% -30.7% 27% -35.6%
15% -37.4% 26% -41.8%
20% -43.5% 23% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258.46 · official $258.46 (match) · 2041 history records