Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91ad…b740 crypto 1114 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 129d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,757 (-5%) realized −$4,757 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%607W / 529L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,551
7 days−$3,788
14 days−$3,787
30 days−$3,829
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,582
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 -14.1% -22.2% 47% 43% -37.2%
≤30d 302 -3.8% -13.0% 52% 48% -30.6%
≤90d 302 -3.8% -13.0% 52% 48% -30.6%
all 1136 -2.7% -12.0% 53% 48% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 48% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 41% -22.3%
15% -28.1% 33% -29.8%
20% -35.1% 29% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$50 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,757
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses607 / 529
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1136 / 1114
History coverage130d ⚠
Avg bet$89
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1136 Trades
no open positions (241 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $284 −$284 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $857 −$857 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$42 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $54 −$36 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $373 −$373 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $215 −$187 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$25 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $129 −$129 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $316 −$316 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $270 −$270 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $646 −$646 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $119 −$119 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $132 −$132 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $72 +$59 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$32 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$22 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $64 +$59 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$34 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $55 +$45 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $42 +$38 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $38 +$28 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$15 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $45 +$35 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$48 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $128 +$5 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $64 +$64 +99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$31 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $101 −$98 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$43 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $76 −$74 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $46 −$45 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $127 +$34 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $71 +$56 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $182 −$112 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $99 +$83 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $48 −$47 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $70 −$23 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $95 +$79 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$45 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $72 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $72 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $40 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $23 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $64 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $36 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $55 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $22 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $25 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $33 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $51 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $36 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $39 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $45 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $128 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $64 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records