Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:30:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91ac…d927 crypto 1561 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$273 (+4%) realized −$7 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate76%1184W / 376L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$109
14 days−$8
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$5
other 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 -28.4% -35.2% 39% 34% -22.3%
≤30d 378 -3.2% -12.4% 53% 47% -11.4%
≤90d 1560 +0.0% -9.5% 76% 25% -9.6%
all 1560 +0.0% -9.5% 76% 25% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 25% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 19% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 15% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 12% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1184 / 376
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1560 / 1561
History coverage84d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1560 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Up 0¢ 46¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$3 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$2 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$4 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$8 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $7 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.65 · official $5.00 (match) · 3500 history records