Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:11:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91aa…19b8 crypto 168 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$46,419 (+22%) realized +$62,139 · open −$15,720
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate38%115W / 189L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,235per market
Trades / day1658.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$60,801now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$2,391
politics 14% −$15,720
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1659 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 304 +3.3% -6.6% 38% 22% -12.4%
≤30d 304 +3.3% -6.6% 38% 22% -12.4%
≤90d 304 +3.3% -6.6% 38% 22% -12.4%
all 304 +3.3% -6.6% 38% 22% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1658.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 22% -12.4%
10% -15.5% 18% -20.8%
15% ← realistic here -23.7% 12% -28.4%
20% -31.2% 7% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
19.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$103 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$60,801
Realized+$62,139
Unrealized−$15,720
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses115 / 189
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)304 / 168
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1,235
Trades / day1658.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 304 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 76¢ $30,000 $45,720 +$15,720 (+52%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 24¢ $30,000 $14,280 −$15,720 (-52%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Down 99¢ 100¢ $383 $387 +$4 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $188 $190 +$2 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 99¢ 100¢ $171 $173 +$2 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $46 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $446 $0 −$446 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $286 $0 −$286 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $604 $0 −$604 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$74 -571%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$86 +233194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $446 −$446 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$386 +44604%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $286 −$286 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $142 −$142 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$24 -790%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $427 −$427 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$60 -459%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $993 −$993 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$7 -233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $64 −$76 -119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$5 -540%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $146 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $48 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $23 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $122 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $53 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $48 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $495 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $147 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60,801.30 · official $60,801.17 (match) · 3500 history records