Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:39:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
91 0x91aa…c94a sports 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$64 (+2%) realized +$65 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%32W / 42L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$366
7 days+$303
14 days+$303
30 days+$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$536
crypto 32% −$192
other 20% −$42
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +2.0% -7.7% 43% 42% -1.1%
≤30d 74 +2.0% -7.7% 43% 42% -1.1%
≤90d 74 +2.0% -7.7% 43% 42% -1.1%
all 74 +2.0% -7.7% 43% 42% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 42% -1.1%
10% -16.5% 42% -10.6%
15% -24.6% 39% -19.2%
20% -32.0% 38% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$40 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses32 / 42
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 83
History coverage8d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs KOLESIE 36¢ 36¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs 4ikibamboni 38¢ 36¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $178 +$161 +90%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $51 +$105 +206%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $76 −$76 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$93 +90%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $207 −$207 -100%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi Jun 19 $25 −$2 -7%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $25 +$11 +44%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$7 +27%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $25 +$27 +105%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$49 -93%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $29 −$12 -44%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $34 +$27 +79%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $25 +$34 +134%
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 18 $26 +$58 +226%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $26 +$50 +197%
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 18 $24 +$44 +178%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $53 −$33 -62%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Jun 17 $30 +$39 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $115 +$78 +67%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division Jun 17 $30 +$45 +152%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $29 +$24 +82%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $25 −$20 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$31 +119%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argenti Jun 17 $51 +$155 +304%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $50 +$50 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 38¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 36¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $156 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 30¢ $75 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 37¢ $51 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $26 14h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 56¢ $49 16h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $26 16h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Flame Team 43¢ $25 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 38¢ $51 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- SELL 36¢ $72 17h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi SELL WW Team 48¢ $24 17h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL 1WIN 65¢ $37 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $102 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $32 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 19h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY WW Team 50¢ $25 19h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 44¢ $25 19h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 49¢ $76 19h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $52 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $76 22h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Infinite 43¢ $24 22h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY KOLESIE 48¢ $25 23h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Carstensz 37¢ $24 26h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 31¢ $26 26h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY Coalesce 36¢ $25 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.70 · official $48.70 (match) · 178 history records