Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:26:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91a9…f793 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (132 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$50 (+1%) realized +$358 · open −$308
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day132.0pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$599
other 14% −$475
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -19.7% -27.4% 60% 50% -1.3%
≤30d 10 -19.7% -27.4% 60% 50% -1.3%
≤90d 10 -19.7% -27.4% 60% 50% -1.3%
all 10 -19.7% -27.4% 60% 50% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover132.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.4% 50% -1.3%
10% ← realistic here -34.3% 20% -10.8%
15% -40.7% 10% -19.4%
20% -46.5% 10% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$219 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized+$358
Unrealized−$308
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions6
Markets (closed)10 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day132.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Philadelphia Phillies 26¢ 54¢ $31 $65 +$34 (+107%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals 64¢ 100¢ $25 $39 +$14 (+56%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers New York Yankees 32¢ 86¢ $3 $9 +$5 (+170%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Chicago Cubs 74¢ 96¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+30%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Seattle Mariners 21¢ 100¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+376%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 17¢ 14¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets New York Mets 39¢ 4¢ $34 $3 −$31 (-91%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 76¢ 0¢ $289 $0 −$288 (-100%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 12¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Texas Rangers 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $385 −$380 -99%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $1,368 +$870 +64%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 24 $82 +$23 +27%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $488 −$476 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 24 $1,985 +$363 +18%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 23 $230 +$44 +19%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $194 +$6 +3%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $17 −$7 -42%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $13 −$12 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 17¢ $4 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 13¢ $162 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 45¢ $184 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 17¢ $244 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 52¢ $272 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 44¢ $201 1h
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Panama 78¢ $82 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 37¢ $176 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 59¢ $373 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 59¢ $99 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $4 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $42 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 20¢ $1 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $18 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 19¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 20¢ $60 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 20¢ $1 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 23¢ $19 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 32¢ $2 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $315 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 86¢ $17 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 69¢ $30 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 74¢ $5 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 16¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.97 · official $142.74 · 141 history records