Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:02:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

91 0x91a8…b42e other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$251 (-2%) realized −$1,329 · open +$1,078

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip

Net edge+12%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%6W / 12L

Whale WR60%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$808per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Fees−$74est.

Kalshi-fit37%portable

Net worth$2,998now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$114

7 days+$1,210

14 days+$1,210

30 days+$1,210

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+16.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+59.8%	+44.6%	38%	38%	+12.2%
≤30d	13	+59.8%	+44.6%	38%	38%	+12.2%
≤90d	16	+29.9%	+17.5%	31%	31%	-18.3%
all	18	+28.3%	+16.1%	33%	33%	-8.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+16.1%	33%	-8.0%
10%	+5.0%	33%	-16.8%
15%	-5.2%	33%	-24.9%
20%	-14.5%	33%	-32.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 56% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +28% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 60% (≥$712) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +69% → late -13% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$750 vs −$395 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.95 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage

Net worth$2,998

Realized−$1,329

Unrealized+$1,078

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses6 / 12

Whale WR (big bets)60%

Est. fees paid−$74

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage160d

Avg bet$808

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	64¢	100¢	$1,920	$2,998	+$1,078 (+56%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan?	Jun 21	$308	−$15	-5%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan?	Jun 21	$164	+$246	+149%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan?	Jun 21	$226	−$51	-22%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$16	−$16	-100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$607	−$595	-98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Jun 20	$430	−$59	-14%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$287	−$34	-12%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$509	−$500	-98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$1,017	+$910	+90%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$508	−$500	-98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$712	+$995	+140%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$31	+$186	+604%
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Jun 17	$260	+$643	+248%
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Apr 01	$2,910	−$2,264	-78%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Apr 01	$43	−$43	-100%
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Apr 01	$15	−$15	-100%
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Jan 20	$2,720	+$1,523	+56%
Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Jan 15	$2,657	−$651	-24%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan?	SELL Yes	15¢	$292	1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan?	SELL Yes	21¢	$410	1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan?	SELL Yes	9¢	$175	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	1¢	$16	11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	35¢	$607	12h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	SELL Yes	19¢	$371	12h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	SELL No	13¢	$253	12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$1,941	14h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	14¢	$287	14h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$430	14h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan?	BUY Yes	8¢	$164	14h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan?	BUY Yes	11¢	$226	14h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan?	BUY Yes	15¢	$308	14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	41¢	$509	16h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	85¢	$1,927	25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	44¢	$1,017	26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	47¢	$508	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	41¢	$204	3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	41¢	$509	3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	34¢	$29	3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$15	3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$15	3d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	SELL No	7¢	$1	81d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	SELL No	7¢	$35	81d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	SELL No	7¢	$6	81d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	SELL No	7¢	$1	81d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	SELL No	7¢	$342	81d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	SELL No	7¢	$3	81d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	SELL No	7¢	$184	81d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	SELL No	7¢	$6	81d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,998.50 · official $2,998.50 (match) · 92 history records