Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:20:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
91 0x91a7…c755 other 278 markets active 1h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$620 (+0%) realized +$584 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate53%144W / 128L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$761per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$2,312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$147
14 days+$152
30 days+$295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$918
other 24% +$186
politics 10% −$990
finance 6% +$34
tech 3% −$52
economics 2% −$23
crypto 1% +$581
sports 0% −$75
culture 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +121.3% +100.2% 30% 13% -7.7%
≤30d 39 +85.4% +67.8% 44% 15% -8.2%
≤90d 78 +60.4% +45.1% 50% 22% -8.8%
all 272 +13.7% +2.9% 53% 18% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 18% -9.4%
10% -7.0% 12% -18.1%
15% -16.0% 8% -26.0%
20% -24.2% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$23 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$2,312
Realized+$584
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses144 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)272 / 278
History coverage251d
Avg bet$761
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 272 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GTA VI released before November 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $1,011 $1,016 +$5 (+1%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $581 $583 +$2 (+0%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $278 $285 +$7 (+2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 74¢ 82¢ $179 $198 +$19 (+11%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 22? No 92¢ 94¢ $119 $123 +$4 (+3%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 83¢ 83¢ $108 $108 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $1,399 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$3 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$32 +3021%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 19 $4 +$79 +1975%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5,142 +$78 +2%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $989 +$11 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4,287 +$13 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $569 +$1 +0%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 07 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? Jun 01 $3,560 +$40 +1%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 01 $1,193 +$7 +1%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $350 +$50 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $1,784 +$16 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +49%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $3 +$32 +1049%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 16 $3 −$2 -56%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,138 +$162 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 15 $2 +$98 +4579%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Mark Zuckerberg attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 15 $1,200 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $162 +$18 +11%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $1,191 +$9 +1%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026? May 15 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $433 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $961 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 4h
GTA VI released before November 2026? BUY No 95¢ $15 12h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 22? BUY No 92¢ $71 15h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $7 18h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $101 20h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $282 25h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 22? BUY No 92¢ $18 25h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $83 26h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $5 27h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 22? BUY No 92¢ $17 27h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 22? BUY No 92¢ $14 27h
GTA VI released before November 2026? BUY No 95¢ $190 27h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $97 28h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $97 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,312.15 · official $2,312.15 (match) · 1024 history records