Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:35:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91a5…ef2e world 210 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$491 (+7%) realized +$671 · open −$180
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate32%60W / 130L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$441now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$593
14 days+$294
30 days+$798
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$61
other 9% −$77
crypto 9% +$406
finance 6% +$34
politics 2% −$5
weather 0% −$19
sports 0% +$199
culture 0% −$10
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -3.8% -12.9% 23% 20% +44.5%
≤30d 94 -0.6% -10.1% 36% 29% +11.4%
≤90d 147 -26.2% -33.3% 27% 20% +2.4%
all 190 -20.4% -28.0% 32% 24% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 24% +0.9%
10% -34.9% 22% -8.8%
15% -41.2% 16% -17.6%
20% -46.9% 12% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$11 · ×3.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$441
Realized+$671
Unrealized−$180
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses60 / 130
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions38
Markets (closed)190 / 210
History coverage110d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $79 $120 +$41 (+53%)
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by June 30? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $21 $26 +$5 (+22%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Yes 11¢ 25¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+123%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $41 $20 −$21 (-52%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $45 $17 −$28 (-61%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-42%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-45%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-7%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-35%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $412 +$117 +28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $163 −$124 -76%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Trump say "Paper Tiger" during G7 events? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $55 −$23 -42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $110 −$29 -26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $30 +$35 +117%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $40 +$49 +122%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $164 +$241 +147%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $74 +$185 +250%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$54 +54%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $11 +$200 +1766%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $40 −$11 -27%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $40 −$36 -90%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $383 −$279 -73%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $191 −$56 -29%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $81 −$79 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 07 $32 −$30 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $651 +$70 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $16 −$13 -79%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $6 +$4 +65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $46 +$32 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $21 +$12 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 12m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 58¢ $1 41m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 58¢ $1 41m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 58¢ $1 41m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 58¢ $1 41m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 58¢ $1 41m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 58¢ $2 41m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 58¢ $1 41m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 58¢ $1 41m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 67¢ $67 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 69¢ $21 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 18h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 3¢ $6 21h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $22 21h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $20 21h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 23h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 8¢ $8 24h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 9¢ $18 24h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 25h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 93¢ $464 25h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $103 27h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 27h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 27h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $100 27h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $100 27h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 65¢ $65 27h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $441.34 · official $443.03 (match) · 747 history records