Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:36:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91a3…43b0 crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$52 (+11%) realized +$76 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%11W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -10.2% -18.8% 46% 46% -16.7%
≤30d 24 -10.2% -18.8% 46% 46% -16.7%
≤90d 24 -10.2% -18.8% 46% 46% -16.7%
all 24 -10.2% -18.8% 46% 46% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 46% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 46% -24.7%
15% -33.6% 42% -32.0%
20% -40.2% 42% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$76
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses11 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$20 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $28 +$20 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $18 +$10 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$20 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$24 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $23 −$21 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$20 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$14 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $22 +$24 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $27 +$18 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $22 +$22 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$13 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $9 +$7 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$7 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $22 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $48 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $28 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $28 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $18 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $22 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $18.25 · 39 history records