Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:49:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x919d…60e1 world 291 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$17,700 (+8%) realized +$13,258 · open +$4,442
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate23%123W / 420L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$716per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$69,038now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 117d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$2,521
other 22% +$1,672
politics 17% +$6,167
crypto 3% +$316
economics 3% +$13,991
culture 3% −$2,173
sports 3% +$821
finance 0% −$290
tech 0% −$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-50.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 328 -73.4% -75.9% 3% 3% -88.2%
≤30d 351 -67.0% -70.2% 8% 7% -74.7%
≤90d 482 -51.9% -56.5% 19% 13% -47.5%
all 543 -45.6% -50.8% 23% 16% -37.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.8% 16% -37.4%
10% ← realistic here -55.5% 13% -43.4%
15% -59.8% 10% -48.9%
20% -63.8% 8% -53.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -20% → late -71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$411 vs −$290 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$69,038
Realized+$13,258
Unrealized+$4,442
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses123 / 420
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions91
Markets (closed)543 / 291
History coverage117d ⚠
Avg bet$716
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 91 History 543 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $7,499 $7,846 +$347 (+5%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $6,878 $6,994 +$116 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $2,930 $3,167 +$237 (+8%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 86¢ 94¢ $2,334 $2,545 +$211 (+9%)
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027? No 94¢ 96¢ $2,454 $2,513 +$60 (+2%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 85¢ 98¢ $2,033 $2,352 +$320 (+16%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 63¢ 86¢ $1,709 $2,331 +$621 (+36%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $2,118 $2,220 +$102 (+5%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $2,060 $2,149 +$90 (+4%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 76¢ 99¢ $1,587 $2,072 +$485 (+31%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 69¢ 56¢ $2,182 $1,788 −$393 (-18%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 86¢ 92¢ $1,477 $1,588 +$111 (+7%)
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? No 89¢ 92¢ $1,425 $1,469 +$44 (+3%)
SBF released from custody in 2026? No 90¢ 95¢ $1,355 $1,430 +$75 (+6%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 79¢ 99¢ $1,101 $1,390 +$289 (+26%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 70¢ 100¢ $845 $1,197 +$352 (+42%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $1,064 $1,122 +$58 (+5%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $1,043 $1,095 +$52 (+5%)
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes 59¢ 81¢ $775 $1,059 +$284 (+37%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? Yes 80¢ 96¢ $837 $1,008 +$172 (+21%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 88¢ 95¢ $924 $999 +$75 (+8%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 74¢ 78¢ $886 $942 +$56 (+6%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 81¢ 92¢ $810 $925 +$115 (+14%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 62¢ 76¢ $739 $906 +$167 (+23%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 90¢ 93¢ $834 $870 +$36 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 409 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs TYLOO (BO1) Jun 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 22-28 be less tha Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Sea Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Hailey Baptiste Jun 19 $220 −$220 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 19 $138 −$370 -268%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jun 19 $478 −$432 -90%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) Jun 19 $76 −$76 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) Jun 19 $104 −$104 -100%
Devils vs. Bruins Jun 19 $159 −$159 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 19 $313 −$833 -266%
Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2026-01-09? Jun 19 $460 −$460 -100%
Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? Jun 19 $91 −$91 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ultra Prime (BO3) Jun 19 $391 −$391 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 22? Jun 19 $90 +$526 +584%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%? Jun 19 $58 −$58 -100%
Spread: Jacksonville Dolphins (-2.5) Jun 19 $362 −$362 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 19 $713 −$713 -100%
Men's Group C - Germany vs. Denmark Jun 19 $305 −$305 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO3) Jun 19 $287 −$287 -100%
Will 0 judges rule in favor of Trump's Tarriffs? Jun 19 $116 −$116 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ultra Prime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Januar Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Jun 19 $105 −$105 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Jun 19 $185 −$185 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 19 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-03? Jun 19 $610 −$610 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 15-21 be between Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges Jun 19 $170 −$170 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) Jun 19 $653 −$653 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FaZe (BO3) Jun 19 $117 −$117 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Flames vs. Penguins Jun 19 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale? Jun 19 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-11-30? Jun 19 $260 −$260 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $180 −$180 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 9 - 15 be between Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $60 −$41 -67%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 19 $225 −$225 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NIP (BO1) Jun 19 $77 −$77 -100%
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Jun 19 $476 −$476 -100%
Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $800M and $1B? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic (BO1) Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 15-21 be less tha Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stage Jun 19 $111 −$111 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $312 −$312 -100%
Islanders vs. Predators Jun 19 $376 −$376 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jun 19 $143 −$63 -44%
Qatar Total Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Magdalena Frech Jun 19 $124 −$124 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $8 26m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $25 34m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $25 34m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $25 34m
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 86¢ $6 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 86¢ $271 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $742 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $118 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $144 2h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $28 2h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $5 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $11 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $6 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $0 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $0 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $4 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $4 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $4 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 46¢ $101 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $94 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $0 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $0 5h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 88¢ $176 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 69¢ $172 5h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $99 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $125 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 25¢ $30 8h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 8h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 90¢ $65 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69,038.23 · official $69,038.55 (match) · 3500 history records