Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:51:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
91 0x919d…bf1e other 9 markets active 13h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$380 (+4%) realized +$385 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$1,193per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$187
other 22% +$277
sports 2% −$3
world 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -17.4% -25.3% 60% 40% -6.0%
≤30d 5 -17.4% -25.3% 60% 40% -6.0%
≤90d 5 -17.4% -25.3% 60% 40% -6.0%
all 5 -17.4% -25.3% 60% 40% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 40% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 40% -15.0%
15% -38.9% 40% -23.2%
20% -44.9% 40% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$224 vs −$153 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized+$385
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1,193
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $183 +$104 +57%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 21 $206 −$206 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $707 +$380 +54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8,104 +$187 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND BUY 2¢ $515 33h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 11¢ $513 33h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,088 34h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $206 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 36h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $8,291 37h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $7,902 38h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $183 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $204 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $203 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.55 · official $894.54 · 15 history records