Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x919d…bac6 politics 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%12W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$2
sports 26% −$1
other 14% $0
world 7% $0
economics 5% +$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 -3.2% -12.4% 67% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 6 -3.2% -12.4% 67% 0% -9.5%
all 39 -3.1% -12.3% 31% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses12 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage224d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $73 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $73 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1 $0 -19%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $75 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $77 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $77 $0 +0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 16 $153 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 07 $76 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $75 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $77 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 24 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 21 $75 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $79 −$1 -1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 17 $74 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $155 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 12 $152 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 7? Jan 08 $75 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 06 $77 $0 -0%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Jan 03 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 31 $75 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $75 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 26 $75 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 24 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 22 $77 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $76 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $75 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 14 $76 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 13 $76 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $76 +$1 +1%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 08 $75 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $76 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 05 $75 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 03 $75 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 01 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 28 $74 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 26 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 16 $78 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $74 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $73 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $73 10d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $75 13d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $75 15d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $77 21d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $77 108d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $77 123d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $77 127d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $76 132d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $76 138d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 100¢ $75 141d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $76 142d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $77 145d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $74 146d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $74 147d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $75 148d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $75 149d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $77 150d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $77 151d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $74 152d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $74 153d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $77 154d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $77 155d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $76 155d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $77 157d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $74 157d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $74 161d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records