Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
91 0x9199…dd2d culture 244 markets active 4h ago coverage 250d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable culture specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 249d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$47,265 (+16%) realized +$45,813 · open +$1,452
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%124W / 126L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$1,250per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$4,306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 250d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 81% +$7,235
other 19% +$3,744
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -42.4% -47.9% 40% 33% -9.4%
≤30d 22 -26.8% -33.7% 41% 36% -13.1%
≤90d 79 +3.9% -6.0% 51% 44% -6.4%
all 250 +22.2% +10.6% 50% 40% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.6% 40% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -0.0% 28% -15.7%
15% -9.7% 19% -23.8%
20% -18.5% 14% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$1,532) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$530 vs −$468 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$4,306
Realized+$45,813
Unrealized+$1,452
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses124 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)250 / 244
History coverage250d ⚠
Avg bet$1,250
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 69m? No 85¢ 97¢ $1,622 $1,855 +$234 (+14%)
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? Yes 20¢ 96¢ $226 $1,087 +$861 (+380%)
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? No 87¢ 100¢ $487 $556 +$69 (+14%)
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? Yes 86¢ 98¢ $349 $399 +$51 (+14%)
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m? Yes 15¢ 99¢ $31 $209 +$178 (+576%)
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 77m? No 70¢ 100¢ $140 $199 +$59 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "The Strangers: Chapter 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater Jun 29 $1,967 −$2,679 -136%
"Gabby’s Dollhouse" grosses higher than "One Battle After Another" ope Jun 29 $56 −$55 -98%
Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 65 Jun 29 $0 −$365 -245750%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 80m? Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will "Good Fortune" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "The Strangers: Chapter 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less tha Jun 29 $350 −$350 -100%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m? Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" gross 125–150% of "The Senior"? Jun 29 $306 −$332 -109%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m? Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 12 Jun 29 $210 −$210 -100%
Will "Good Fortune" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m? Jun 29 $1 +$1,187 +191528%
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? Jun 28 $3,637 +$195 +5%
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? Jun 28 $2,796 +$403 +14%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 22 $2,522 +$913 +36%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Jun 22 $842 +$1,335 +159%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? Jun 22 $4 +$1 +24%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? Jun 22 $570 +$137 +24%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Jun 21 $345 −$345 -100%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 21 $255 −$42 -17%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 08 $340 +$660 +194%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 07 $830 +$125 +15%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 07 $600 −$600 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? Jun 01 $296 +$312 +105%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? May 30 $3,000 −$877 -29%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m May 27 $1,282 +$50 +4%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 10.5m May 27 $359 +$60 +17%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9.5m and 11m? May 27 $7 +$3 +41%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than May 24 $1,396 −$1,391 -100%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? May 18 $320 +$17 +5%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m? May 18 $100 +$25 +25%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and May 12 $3,075 +$1,079 +35%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and May 12 $323 +$57 +18%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m May 11 $2,119 −$464 -22%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 35m? May 11 $236 +$49 +21%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m? May 11 $62 +$15 +25%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m? May 11 $3,050 +$1,238 +41%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than May 10 $7 +$24 +372%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m? May 09 $600 $0 -0%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m May 08 $1,516 −$516 -34%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8 May 05 $5,283 −$526 -10%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 5th Weekend Box Office be between May 04 $500 −$500 -100%
Will "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m? May 04 $1 +$10 +900%
Will "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m? May 04 $435 +$55 +13%
Will "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 8m? May 04 $9 +$2 +22%
Will "Animal Farm" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 4m? May 04 $63 +$16 +25%
Will "Animal Farm" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 4m? May 04 $850 +$150 +18%
Will "Animal Farm" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2.5m and 3m? May 04 $310 −$297 -96%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 55m? May 04 $1,764 +$524 +30%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m? May 04 $2,187 −$339 -16%
Will "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m? May 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 69m? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 3h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 69m? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 69m? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 69m? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 69m? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 4h
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 18h
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? BUY Yes 86¢ $90 18h
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? BUY Yes 86¢ $26 18h
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? BUY Yes 86¢ $90 18h
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? BUY Yes 86¢ $26 18h
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? BUY Yes 86¢ $23 18h
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? BUY Yes 86¢ $90 18h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 20h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 65m? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 21h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 65m? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 23h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 69m? BUY No 85¢ $161 24h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 69m? BUY No 85¢ $1,567 26h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,649 27h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? SELL No 100¢ $333 29h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? SELL No 100¢ $100 29h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? SELL No 100¢ $251 29h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? SELL No 100¢ $100 29h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? SELL No 100¢ $100 29h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? SELL No 100¢ $2 30h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? SELL No 99¢ $8 30h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? SELL No 100¢ $35 30h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? SELL No 100¢ $50 30h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? SELL No 100¢ $51 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,306.41 · official $4,306.41 (match) · 3500 history records