Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:50:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9199…5cfb world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% $0
other 16% +$1
sports 14% $0
politics 11% −$1
tech 7% $0
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 15 +0.3% -9.2% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 +0.3% -9.2% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 44 -0.0% -9.5% 30% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage316d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $43 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $8 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $39 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $76 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $40 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $36 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $57 −$1 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $1 $0 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $2 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 10 $5 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 22 $3 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Aug 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 21 $46 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 19 $42 +$1 +2%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 19 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 19 $46 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 18 $50 $0 -1%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025? Aug 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 07 $55 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $26 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $14 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $32 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $8 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 15h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $39 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $5 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $43 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 34h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 72¢ $7 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 72¢ $35 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 72¢ $41 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 72¢ $1 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $36 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $31 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $8 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $14 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $24 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $2 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 164 history records