Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:15:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
91 0x9199…1b0a crypto 1256 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (226 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$191 (+3%) realized +$262 · open −$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%608W / 528L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day225.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$223
7 days−$114
14 days+$305
30 days+$305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$568
other 4% +$29
sports 3% +$12
politics 0% −$4
culture 0% $0
tech 0% +$11
economics 0% +$4
world 0% $0
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (226 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 461 -6.2% -15.1% 52% 46% -12.7%
≤30d 1136 +0.3% -9.3% 54% 49% -6.1%
≤90d 1136 +0.3% -9.3% 54% 49% -6.1%
all 1136 +0.3% -9.3% 54% 49% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover225.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 49% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 43% -15.1%
15% -25.9% 39% -23.3%
20% -33.1% 36% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$351
Realized+$262
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses608 / 528
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions55
Markets (closed)1136 / 1256
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day225.8
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 55 History 1136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 73¢ 100¢ $48 $66 +$18 (+37%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 56¢ 98¢ $11 $20 +$9 (+76%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 17¢ 29¢ $8 $14 +$6 (+70%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 53¢ 62¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+16%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 30¢ 32¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 10¢ 73¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+630%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 83¢ 73¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 81¢ 80¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 84¢ 86¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 82¢ 86¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 77¢ 90¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+17%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No 87¢ 80¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 77¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%? No 79¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 43¢ 48¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 64¢ 68¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 8¢ 6¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 84¢ 76¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and 2%? No 70¢ 87¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1.5%? No 62¢ 57¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 87¢ 87¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 79¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 429 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 16 $10 +$2 +26%
Will Luca Pozzobon win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral election? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 2? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 3? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 4? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 65% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 4? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 3? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 4? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 2? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 4AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.98 · official $350.98 (match) · 3500 history records