Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:30:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
91 0x9199…b5fb politics 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$31 (+0%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate25%17W / 51L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 69% −$14
politics 19% −$10
other 7% −$7
sports 2% +$60
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -6.3% -15.3% 12% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 56 +3.6% -6.3% 25% 16% -8.2%
all 68 +2.9% -6.9% 25% 13% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 13% -9.4%
10% -15.8% 13% -18.1%
15% -24.0% 13% -26.0%
20% -31.4% 10% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses17 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage620d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $77 $76 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $142 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 29 $19 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 12 $118 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-10? May 12 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $122 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 06 $121 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $119 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $122 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $116 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $116 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $120 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 25 $114 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $116 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $119 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $118 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $116 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $110 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $119 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $112 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $123 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $123 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $228 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $113 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $8 +$6 +72%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $13 +$6 +50%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $8 +$8 +89%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 07 $10 +$8 +75%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $17 +$2 +10%
Ducks vs. Sharks Apr 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Devils Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 31m
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $20 17h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 19h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 42h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 44h
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $77 3d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $35 6d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $16 6d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $19 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 7d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 46¢ $8 8d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $15 14d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $15 14d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 16d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $17 17d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 18d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 18d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $19 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $19 19d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $34 22d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $40 25d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 25d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $17 25d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $17 25d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $15 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.27 · official $76.27 (match) · 307 history records