Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:07:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9198…15df crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (109 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+2%) realized +$61 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%25W / 19L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day109.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$68
tech 11% −$51
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (109 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +9.3% -1.1% 57% 50% +5.1%
≤30d 44 +9.3% -1.1% 57% 50% +5.1%
≤90d 44 +9.3% -1.1% 57% 50% +5.1%
all 44 +9.3% -1.1% 57% 50% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover109.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.1% 50% +5.1%
10% ← realistic here -10.6% 43% -4.9%
15% -19.2% 36% -14.1%
20% -27.1% 34% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses25 / 19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day109.0
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 55¢ 50¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? No 22¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$38 +247%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.41 · official $14.41 (match) · 149 history records