Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

91
0x9196…d934
weather · 525 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$3,516 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,575 · open −$84
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$466
Realized+$3,575
Unrealized−$84
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses259 / 452
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)711 / 525
History coverage24d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day139.9
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 13 History 711 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$313
7 days+$183
14 days+$2,008
30 days+$3,575
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Yes 25¢ 67¢ $52 $140 +$88 (+169%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $135 $136 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Yes 4¢ 29¢ $8 $60 +$52 (+626%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $42 $41 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Yes 72¢ 100¢ $18 $26 +$7 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? No 94¢ 100¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Yes 21¢ 27¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? No 62¢ 33¢ $28 $15 −$13 (-47%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $3 $8 +$6 (+212%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+75%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 13? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$5 (-85%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $136 $0 −$135 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 2? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on May 14? No 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8? No 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on May 8? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on April 27? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 7? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 8? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 2? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on May 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on May 8? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on April 27? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 7? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -106%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 20? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on May 9? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C or higher on May 7? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 4? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 6? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on April 24? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on May 3? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 26? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 8? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 22? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on April 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 7? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on May 9? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on April 21? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 27? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 26? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 18? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 30? Jun 13 $1 −$2 -170%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 5? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +262%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 7? Jun 13 $0 −$2 -498%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on May 6? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 9? Jun 13 $2 −$3 -178%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 7? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 29? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -145%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 21? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 6? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 29? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 22? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -130%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 30? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 3? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 16? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 27? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 20? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 8? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on April 22? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 9? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 23? Jun 13 $1 +$9 +708%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 7? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on May 6? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 10? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 8? Jun 13 $1 $0 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$4,055
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 62¢ $28 7m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 357 -38.1% -44.0% 25% 14% -8.4%
≤30d 711 -15.4% -23.5% 36% 20% -4.0%
≤90d 711 -15.4% -23.5% 36% 20% -4.0%
all 711 -15.4% -23.5% 36% 20% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover139.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 20% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 15% -13.2%
15% -37.5% 13% -21.6%
20% -43.6% 12% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $466.50 · official $466.96 (match) · 3500 history records