Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9195…4b08 other 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$23 (-5%) realized −$17 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$85
sports 14% +$74
crypto 4% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+47.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +63.1% +47.6% 41% 41% -14.9%
≤30d 17 +63.1% +47.6% 41% 41% -14.9%
≤90d 17 +63.1% +47.6% 41% 41% -14.9%
all 17 +63.1% +47.6% 41% 41% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.6% 41% -14.9%
10% +33.5% 35% -23.0%
15% +20.6% 29% -30.5%
20% +8.7% 24% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late +169% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$22 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage5d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 65¢ 60¢ $80 $74 −$6 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 +$10 +21%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$33 +324%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$40 +1308%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $52 −$51 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 2m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 24h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $61 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 42h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 42h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 47h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.99 · official $73.99 (match) · 29 history records