Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9193…7e2f world 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$8
other 22% −$2
tech 6% $0
crypto 5% $0
politics 4% $0
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -1.4% -10.8% 44% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 9 -1.4% -10.8% 44% 0% -11.9%
all 25 -3.9% -13.0% 52% 0% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -11.4%
10% -21.3% 0% -19.8%
15% -28.9% 0% -27.6%
20% -35.9% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage454d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $65 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $74 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $62 −$9 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jun 26 $7 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14? Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Giants make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 12 $12 $0 -1%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 09 $12 $0 +1%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $11 $0 -1%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 22 $2 −$1 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 12h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $21 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $14 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $17 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $7 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $24 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $31 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $16 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $19 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $7 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $27 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 71¢ $8 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 71¢ $8 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $37 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $43 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records