Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:23:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

91 0x9193…6243 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 584d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$3 (-2%) realized −$3 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR64%break-even

Win rate64%7W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 584d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +64%

net ROI/market (all)-14.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	11	-5.8%	-14.8%	64%	64%	-15.5%
≤90d	11	-5.8%	-14.8%	64%	64%	-15.5%
all	11	-5.8%	-14.8%	64%	64%	-15.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.8%	64%	-15.5%
10%	-22.9%	64%	-23.6%
15%	-30.4%	55%	-31.0%
20%	-37.2%	18%	-37.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 46% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.82 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

584d coverage

Net worth$43

Realized−$3

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)64%

Wins / losses7 / 4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)11 / 12

History coverage584d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	74¢	74¢	$43	$43	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 21	$21	−$20	-95%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 21	$11	−$11	-100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$11	+$5	+46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$11	+$7	+64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$16	+$8	+49%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	+$2	+32%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$7	+$3	+40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$10	+$4	+38%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?	Jun 16	$5	+$3	+67%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	74¢	$45	2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$21	7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	65¢	$11	8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$11	9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	51¢	$5	10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$16	11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	24¢	$11	11d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$5	12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$10	12d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	7¢	$2	12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$7	12d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?	BUY Yes	60¢	$5	584d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.71 · official $42.71 (match) · 22 history records