Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:41:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9192…9730 crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$180 (-13%) realized −$189 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%14W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$171
sports 4% −$23
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -17.7% -25.5% 31% 31% -13.3%
≤30d 53 -20.9% -28.4% 26% 26% -24.1%
≤90d 53 -20.9% -28.4% 26% 26% -24.1%
all 53 -20.9% -28.4% 26% 26% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 26% -24.1%
10% -35.3% 26% -31.4%
15% -41.5% 21% -38.0%
20% -47.2% 21% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$24 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$189
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses14 / 39
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage15d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Down 32¢ 50¢ $56 $86 +$30 (+55%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 37¢ 6¢ $25 $4 −$21 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $16 +$30 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$41 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $32 +$92 +292%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$40 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$63 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$83 +315%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$82 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$86 +326%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$41 +247%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$93 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$47 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $124 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.98 · official $89.98 (match) · 104 history records