Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:53:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
91 0x9191…cfd9 other 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 621d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$93 (+0%) realized +$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate26%17W / 48L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$313per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 68% −$14
other 16% −$19
politics 13% −$5
sports 1% +$128
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.1% -32.3% 0% 0% -18.9%
≤30d 16 -6.3% -15.2% 12% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 53 +6.6% -3.6% 26% 19% -7.7%
all 65 +5.2% -4.8% 26% 15% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 15% -9.1%
10% -13.9% 15% -17.8%
15% -22.3% 14% -25.8%
20% -29.9% 12% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×7.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.56 per $1 lost it wins $2.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

621d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses17 / 48
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage621d
Avg bet$313
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $117 $117 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $219 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $77 $0 +0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $37 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $37 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $21 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 18 $183 $0 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $180 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $182 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $181 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $183 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $179 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $172 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $183 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $189 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $182 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $548 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 22 $182 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $177 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $172 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $177 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $171 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $375 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $182 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 11 $42 +$1 +3%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $13 +$6 +48%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $13 +$10 +72%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $10 +$9 +89%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $10 +$12 +124%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $12 +$13 +109%
Timberwolves vs. 76ers Apr 06 $15 +$12 +76%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 03 $21 +$2 +9%
Flyers vs. Capitals Apr 03 $22 +$18 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $29 2h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $24 23h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $24 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $9 27h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY No 99¢ $117 34h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 3d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $40 9d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $40 10d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $26 14d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 15d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 15d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $40 16d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 16d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 18d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 18d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 19d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 19d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 20d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 20d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $48 23d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $24 26d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $24 26d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 26d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $77 27d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $29 27d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $30 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.85 · official $116.85 (match) · 287 history records