Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:36:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x918d…f403 crypto 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$271 (-28%) realized −$271 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%9W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day36.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$258
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-48.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -42.5% -48.0% 17% 17% -33.6%
≤30d 53 -42.5% -48.0% 17% 17% -33.6%
≤90d 53 -42.5% -48.0% 17% 17% -33.6%
all 53 -42.5% -48.0% 17% 17% -33.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.0% 17% -33.6%
10% ← realistic here -52.9% 17% -40.0%
15% -57.5% 17% -45.8%
20% -61.7% 17% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -72% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$17 · ×3.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$271
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses9 / 44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage2d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day36.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$14 +413%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$66 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$61 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$85 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $47 +$86 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$44 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $29 +$58 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $17 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $47 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $35 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $40 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $8 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $51 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $13 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $21 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records