Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:10:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

91
0x918a…dea7
crypto · 58 markets active 1h ago
5.5score
+$309 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$293 · open +$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$414
Realized+$293
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses28 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage485d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 1 History 57 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 73¢ 76¢ $399 $414 +$15 (+4%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? No 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 13 $332 +$12 +4%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 29 $750 −$24 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $499 +$56 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $300 +$14 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $279 +$208 +74%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $285 +$19 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $24 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $312 +$12 +4%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 08 $1 +$1 +76%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $273 +$48 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 18 $4 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 01 $100 +$32 +32%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 01 $116 +$26 +22%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Dec 12 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Dec 05 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Dec 05 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Dec 04 $5 +$2 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Dec 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Dec 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Dec 02 $3 +$4 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Nov 29 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Nov 28 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Nov 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Nov 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Nov 27 $2 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Nov 26 $3 −$3 -100%
IEM Cologne: Vitality vs. MOUZ Aug 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Trump announce run for 3rd term? Aug 02 $2 −$1 -39%
IEM Cologne: Spirit vs. Natus Vincere Aug 02 $4 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +72%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -74%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Trump say "Elon" during tariff event on April 2? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" 15+ times during tariff event on April 2? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the CDU/CSU win between 30% and 32% of the vote in the German ele Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? Mar 01 $5 +$2 +32%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Feb 28 $10 +$2 +23%
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days? Feb 27 $15 −$13 -90%
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? Feb 26 $20 −$15 -75%
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? Feb 24 $45 +$7 +16%
New Pope in 2025? Feb 23 $2 +$1 +39%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Feb 23 $38 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 54% +$256
tech 20% +$117
other 20% −$16
politics 4% −$21
crypto 2% −$22
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $144 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $399 1h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $200 1h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $11 6d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $69 7d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $252 9d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 14¢ $5 15d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 80¢ $79 15d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL No 11¢ $42 15d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 20¢ $41 15d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 12¢ $24 15d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 75¢ $75 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $555 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $103 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $110 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $100 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $314 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $186 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $200 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $100 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $59 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $60 20d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 81¢ $68 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $50 20d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 81¢ $79 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $110 21d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 73¢ $131 21d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 83¢ $304 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $285 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 91¢ $24 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.6% -6.3% 100% 0% -6.3%
≤30d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 86% 29% +6.4%
≤90d 18 -35.4% -41.5% 50% 22% +4.0%
all 57 -28.8% -35.6% 49% 37% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.6% 37% +0.1%
10% -41.7% 28% -9.4%
15% -47.4% 16% -18.2%
20% -52.5% 11% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $414.22 · official $414.22 (match) · 152 history records