trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 18¢ | 16¢ | $1,800 | $1,623 | −$177 (-10%) |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | No | 77¢ | 78¢ | $1,157 | $1,165 | +$8 (+1%) |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? | No | 13¢ | 71¢ | $100 | $543 | +$443 (+443%) |
| Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 22¢ | 24¢ | $200 | $220 | +$20 (+10%) |
| Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $150 | $114 | −$36 (-24%) |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $50 | $49 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $61 | +$64 | +105% |
| Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $703 | +$101 | +14% |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $51 | −$30 | -59% |
| Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | May 26 | $1,010 | +$217 | +22% |
| Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Dec 08 | $3,024 | +$147 | +5% |
| Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Oct 27 | $2,738 | +$286 | +10% |
| Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Jul 23 | $300 | −$262 | -87% |
| Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milan | May 31 | $257 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +20.0% | +8.6% | 67% | 67% | +5.4% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +20.4% | +8.9% | 75% | 75% | +7.9% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +20.4% | +8.9% | 75% | 75% | +7.9% |
| all | 8 | +1.2% | -8.4% | 62% | 38% | -3.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.4% | 38% | -3.7% |
| 10% | -17.2% | 12% | -12.9% |
| 15% | -25.2% | 12% | -21.3% |
| 20% | -32.5% | 12% | -29.1% |