Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

91 0x9189…665a sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 898d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$48 (+7%) realized +$48 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%8W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$32per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit86%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$97

7 days+$58

14 days+$58

30 days+$58

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-18.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+10.7%	+0.2%	57%	57%	+16.8%
≤30d	7	+10.7%	+0.2%	57%	57%	+16.8%
≤90d	9	-13.9%	-22.1%	44%	44%	+8.9%
all	21	-10.3%	-18.8%	38%	38%	-4.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.8%	38%	-4.8%
10%	-26.6%	38%	-13.9%
15%	-33.7%	38%	-22.2%
20%	-40.2%	38%	-29.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +11% → late -30% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$46 vs −$26 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.1 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

898d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$48

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses8 / 13

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage898d

Avg bet$32

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$19	+$25	+128%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$20	−$20	-98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Jun 21	$12	−$12	-98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	Jun 21	$73	+$80	+109%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$13	+$9	+70%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 21	$22	+$15	+67%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London	Jun 20	$40	−$39	-98%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 2 Real Madrid CF?	Apr 15	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 2 Real Madrid CF?	Apr 15	$5	−$5	-97%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	Nov 09	$10	−$10	-100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5)	Nov 02	$6	−$6	-100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5	Nov 01	$18	+$38	+212%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	Nov 01	$30	−$19	-63%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner	Nov 01	$22	+$66	+300%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner	Nov 01	$14	−$14	-100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)	Oct 31	$100	+$88	+89%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 3 Winner	Oct 31	$80	−$80	-100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winner	Oct 31	$58	−$58	-100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	Oct 31	$45	+$49	+108%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner	Oct 30	$36	−$36	-100%
Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Hou Yu-ih win?	Jan 13	$28	−$28	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$44	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$19	8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	39¢	$20	10h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Belgium	43¢	$12	32h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$153	33h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	47¢	$73	34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	90¢	$22	34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	52¢	$13	35h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$37	35h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	59¢	$22	36h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London	BUY EDward Gaming	8¢	$14	2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London	BUY EDward Gaming	20¢	$26	2d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 2 Real Madrid CF?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	68d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 2 Real Madrid CF?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	68d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	BUY KT Rolster	27¢	$10	225d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5)	BUY Top Esports	7¢	$6	232d
Games Total: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	32¢	$18	233d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	SELL KT Rolster	100¢	$38	233d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	BUY KT Rolster	29¢	$11	233d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	BUY Gen.G	73¢	$19	233d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner	SELL KT Rolster	100¢	$88	233d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner	BUY KT Rolster	22¢	$14	233d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner	BUY KT Rolster	25¢	$22	233d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)	BUY T1	53¢	$100	234d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 3 Winner	BUY T1	51¢	$78	234d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 3 Winner	BUY T1	51¢	$2	234d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winner	BUY T1	47¢	$58	234d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	SELL T1	100¢	$94	234d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	BUY T1	48¢	$45	235d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner	BUY Top Esports	64¢	$36	235d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records