Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:00:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

91
0x9189…8f73
world · 206 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$61 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$69 · open +$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$248
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses69 / 83
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions53
Markets (closed)152 / 206
History coverage533d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 53 History 152 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$0
14 days+$56
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 63¢ 74¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+18%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 57¢ 88¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+53%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No 79¢ 84¢ $13 $13 +$1 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 71¢ 82¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+17%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 85¢ 98¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+16%)
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 17¢ 57¢ $3 $11 +$8 (+230%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 42¢ 70¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+67%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 60¢ 100¢ $6 $9 +$4 (+66%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 71¢ 56¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-20%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 73¢ 86¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+18%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-13%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Yes 43¢ 48¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? No 75¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+33%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 27¢ 44¢ $4 $6 +$3 (+66%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 70¢ 68¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? No 79¢ 64¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30? Yes 26¢ 31¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+19%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 70¢ 74¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 64¢ 56¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 66¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$4 -31%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +15%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +34%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -74%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 11 $4 $0 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $4 +$3 +67%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $8 $0 -2%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -18%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +114%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 +$2 +117%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 $0 +39%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -92%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $7 −$4 -61%
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? Jun 11 $4 $0 +4%
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +33%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $6 −$4 -67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +11%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -16%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +12%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $4 +$3 +71%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 $0 +36%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -47%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $22 +$6 +28%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $4 $0 -12%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $2 +$3 +144%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 +$1 +129%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc Jun 08 $6 −$3 -58%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $12 $0 -2%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 08 $6 −$5 -92%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +105%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $4 +$6 +162%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -68%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 63% −$56
other 20% +$19
world 11% −$14
politics 4% −$7
tech 1% +$5
finance 1% −$6
crypto 0% +$5
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $1 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 60¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 95¢ $1 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 93¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 5h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 64¢ $3 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $4 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 7h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 56¢ $2 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 75¢ $3 8h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $3 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 77¢ $4 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 75¢ $1 10h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $4 11h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 61¢ $1 12h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 13h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 63¢ $2 13h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 8¢ $0 17h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 8¢ $1 18h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $1 18h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $1 18h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 69¢ $3 19h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $4 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -1.7% -11.1% 47% 40% -9.3%
≤30d 81 +0.2% -9.4% 49% 42% +3.2%
≤90d 124 -13.6% -21.9% 47% 36% -21.6%
all 152 -7.7% -16.5% 45% 33% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 33% -10.9%
10% -24.5% 25% -19.5%
15% -31.8% 19% -27.2%
20% -38.5% 17% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.03 · official $247.50 (match) · 730 history records