Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
91 0x9187…08f4 sports 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,592 (+18%) realized +$1,605 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate72%33W / 13L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$857now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days+$904
14 days+$894
30 days+$894
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$1,356
other 11% +$126
crypto 2% +$11
politics 2% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +58.2% +43.1% 86% 86% +58.0%
≤30d 8 +38.4% +25.2% 75% 75% +56.8%
≤90d 35 +5.0% -5.0% 66% 60% +8.1%
all 46 +11.9% +1.3% 72% 67% +8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 67% +8.9%
10% -8.4% 57% -1.5%
15% -17.3% 35% -11.1%
20% -25.4% 24% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$160 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$857
Realized+$1,605
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses33 / 13
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions10
Markets (closed)46 / 56
History coverage143d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $250 $249 −$1 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-0%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 50¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes $10 $4 −$6 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $92 +$93 +101%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $204 −$63 -31%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $64 +$60 +94%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $304 +$262 +86%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $202 +$69 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $394 +$192 +49%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $204 +$291 +143%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $406 +$397 +98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $51 −$50 -97%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $500 −$496 -99%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $559 −$559 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 18 $44 +$14 +32%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 17 $500 +$1,118 +224%
Penguins vs. Blues Apr 15 $200 +$103 +52%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $200 −$77 -39%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 15 $200 +$43 +21%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $186 +$148 +79%
76ers vs. Rockets Apr 14 $265 +$121 +46%
Suns vs. Magic Apr 01 $200 +$65 +32%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FaZe (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Mar 31 $185 −$185 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Mar 30 $138 −$138 -100%
Knicks vs. Thunder Mar 30 $293 +$92 +32%
Celtics vs. Hornets Mar 30 $252 +$41 +16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Mar 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 29 $166 −$166 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterda Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 29 $200 +$52 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Mar 29 $160 +$28 +18%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 29 $221 +$77 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 29 $138 +$12 +9%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 28 $149 +$72 +49%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Mar 28 $137 +$11 +8%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 27 $203 +$63 +31%
LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 17 $116 +$31 +26%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Feb 09 $90 +$27 +30%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $82 +$18 +22%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 09 $57 +$25 +45%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 08 $37 +$20 +54%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 06 $47 +$25 +54%
Knicks vs. Wizards Feb 04 $39 +$7 +19%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 03 $30 +$9 +30%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 03 $31 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 03 $20 +$10 +52%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 29 $14 +$6 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $154 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $256 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $81 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $122 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 49¢ $92 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G $28 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 59¢ $106 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 19¢ $102 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 39¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $124 3d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 51¢ $64 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $566 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 63¢ $101 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $586 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 57¢ $192 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 79¢ $201 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $102 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $102 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 74¢ $202 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $495 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $204 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes $10 9d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage SELL G2 100¢ $453 35d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage SELL G2 88¢ $351 35d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY G2 47¢ $406 35d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Nongshim Red Force $51 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $857.10 · official $857.31 (match) · 113 history records