Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
91 0x9187…4463 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$49 (-6%) realized −$40 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$30
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$2
sports 27% +$7
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 47% 47% -3.0%
≤30d 23 +2.9% -6.9% 43% 43% -6.2%
≤90d 23 +2.9% -6.9% 43% 43% -6.2%
all 23 +2.9% -6.9% 43% 43% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 43% -6.2%
10% -15.8% 43% -15.1%
15% -24.0% 39% -23.3%
20% -31.4% 30% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)23 / 37
History coverage13d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+3%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 77¢ 56¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-28%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-13%)
Will a player representing Spain be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $94 +$40 +43%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 +$13 +41%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$28 -91%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$4 -4%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -84%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 +$3 +59%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $62 +$20 +33%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 +$3 +92%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $17 −$16 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$13 -63%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 −$1 -37%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $16 +$8 +52%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$2 -47%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -14%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4 $0 -9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $34 −$33 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $17 +$17 +102%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $83 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $11 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $31 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 75¢ $96 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $104 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $94 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $3 25h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $31 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $31 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 30h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes $1 30h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $103 30h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 44h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $7 44h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 45h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $5 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $52 45h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $8 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $8 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $9 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $21 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.77 · official $120.77 (match) · 76 history records