Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:06:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9183…c349 weather 237 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$62 (+3%) realized +$42 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate92%216W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$27
14 days−$24
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 67% −$1
sports 11% −$90
other 11% +$49
politics 10% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +8.2% -2.1% 88% 56% -13.3%
≤30d 235 -1.4% -10.8% 92% 5% -12.4%
≤90d 235 -1.4% -10.8% 92% 5% -12.4%
all 235 -1.4% -10.8% 92% 5% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 5% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 3% -20.8%
15% -27.1% 0% -28.4%
20% -34.2% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$320
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses216 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)235 / 237
History coverage22d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 82¢ 85¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? No 88¢ 100¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$43 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -6%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 08 $10 −$2 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$3 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 −$4 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 5? Jun 06 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 6? Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $100 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $100 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $104 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $101 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $100 28h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY No 91¢ $10 38h
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? BUY No 92¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $10 3d
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? BUY No 84¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $12 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $13 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $10 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 78¢ $10 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $11 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 65¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 89¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 74¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 64¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 66¢ $10 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $14 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $13 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? BUY No 71¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? BUY No 76¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $13 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? SELL No 64¢ $8 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $319.97 · official $319.97 (match) · 520 history records