Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
91 0x9183…0598 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,922 (+31%) realized +$1,942 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$610now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$210
sports 14% +$1,334
crypto 3% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +31.6% +19.1% 31% 31% +13.3%
≤30d 35 +31.6% +19.1% 31% 31% +13.3%
≤90d 35 +31.6% +19.1% 31% 31% +13.3%
all 35 +31.6% +19.1% 31% 31% +13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.1% 31% +13.3%
10% +7.7% 31% +2.4%
15% -2.7% 31% -7.5%
20% -12.2% 31% -16.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +56% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$436 vs −$143 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$610
Realized+$1,942
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions6
Markets (closed)35 / 41
History coverage4d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $150 $156 +$6 (+4%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$222 +109%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $297 −$290 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $204 +$440 +216%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $308 −$300 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $266 −$260 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $204 +$440 +216%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $204 +$541 +264%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $103 +$672 +655%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $405 −$400 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$175 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$231 +226%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $103 +$724 +705%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$486 +474%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $72 +$317 +442%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 13 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $72 −$70 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $480 +$546 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $425 31m
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 24¢ $82 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $195 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $204 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $644 21h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 22h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 22h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 25¢ $204 22h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 22h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $644 24h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 100¢ $745 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 25h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 25h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $774 25h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $61 27h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 27h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $82 27h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 27h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 27h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 27h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 27h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $609.87 · official $609.87 (match) · 56 history records