Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:38:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9181…64ac crypto 323 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$609 (-13%) realized −$609 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%141W / 180L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$621
sports 14% −$8
other 9% −$1
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -41.2% -46.8% 15% 15% -10.2%
≤30d 13 -41.2% -46.8% 15% 15% -10.2%
≤90d 127 -24.7% -31.9% 29% 25% -44.4%
all 321 -4.4% -13.5% 44% 39% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 39% -22.2%
10% -21.7% 36% -29.6%
15% -29.3% 25% -36.4%
20% -36.2% 21% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$609
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses141 / 180
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)321 / 323
History coverage154d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 321 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$6 +200%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$19 +364%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 03 $37 −$34 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 03 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 03 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 03 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 03 $8 −$5 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 03 $6 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 03 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 03 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 03 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 03 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 03 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-03-31? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 03 $6 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 03 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 03 $10 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Apr 03 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 03 $21 +$24 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 03 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 03 $1 +$1 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 02 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Apr 01 $7 −$7 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 01 $1 +$6 +606%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 01 $4 +$17 +428%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 01 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 01 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 01 $1 +$3 +266%
Will Brazil win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-03-30? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 01 $3 +$9 +294%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 37¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 6¢ $1 18h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $9 18h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 19h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 100¢ $24 34h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 28¢ $1 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $1 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $1 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $3 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 45h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 45h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $22 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $10 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $12 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $7 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $17 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $3.00 · 1261 history records