Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:52:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
91 0x9180…a933 crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+0%) realized +$35 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%36W / 1L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$937per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$949now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$11
other 7% +$21
tech 0% +$2
world 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 16 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 37 +0.6% -9.0% 97% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$1,960) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$59 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$949
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses36 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)37 / 43
History coverage142d
Avg bet$937
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $348 $348 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? No 99¢ 100¢ $259 $262 +$2 (+1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 22 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $139 $137 −$1 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of June 22 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $109 $108 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 98¢ 100¢ $65 $66 +$1 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 03 $148 +$2 +1%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1,587 +$11 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 03 $5 $0 +3%
Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30? May 03 $144 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 17? Apr 19 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 12? Apr 14 $173 +$1 +0%
US strike on Colombia by March 31? Apr 03 $25 $0 +2%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Apr 03 $178 +$3 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $15 $0 +2%
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $35 +$1 +2%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of March? Apr 01 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $4,123 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $4,143 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $1,902 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $2,270 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $203 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $2,747 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $3,164 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $1,979 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $1,195 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 21? Mar 21 $2,176 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $1,186 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $1,287 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 22? Mar 18 $1,960 −$59 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 18? Mar 18 $572 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 17? Mar 17 $1,968 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 13? Mar 16 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 14? Mar 16 $362 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 13? Mar 16 $366 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 14? Mar 16 $1,737 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $2,695 +$5 +0%
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch? Mar 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? Feb 28 $113 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $13 37m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $315 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $139 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $109 1h
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? BUY No 100¢ $149 23d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,587 27d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 99¢ $148 53d
Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $144 68d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 98¢ $25 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $169 72d
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? BUY No 98¢ $5 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $173 76d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 97¢ $5 84d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 99¢ $25 84d
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? BUY No 98¢ $105 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,123 87d
US strike on Mexico by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $25 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,143 88d
US strike on Mexico by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $50 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $998 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,595 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $249 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $305 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $499 89d
US strike on Mexico by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $15 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $203 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,747 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $948.66 · official $948.66 (match) · 107 history records