Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:43:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9180…417f crypto 197 markets active 4d ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$139 (-7%) realized −$139 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate47%92W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$102
14 days−$107
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$118
other 5% −$92
weather 0% +$1
sports 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -41.9% -47.4% 23% 19% -30.8%
≤30d 128 -26.1% -33.1% 41% 30% -20.9%
≤90d 197 -25.7% -32.8% 47% 32% -19.8%
all 197 -25.7% -32.8% 47% 32% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 32% -19.8%
10% -39.2% 20% -27.5%
15% -45.1% 14% -34.5%
20% -50.5% 9% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses92 / 105
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)197 / 197
History coverage43d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 197 Trades
no open positions (77 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$15 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$6 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$36 +388%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$5 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $19 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$5 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$11 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$9 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$10 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$10 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $24 −$11 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$5 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$16 +304%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $24 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 799 history records