Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:18:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9180…fb11 other 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$149 (-12%) realized −$233 · open +$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%25W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$486now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days−$13
14 days+$43
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$60
politics 23% −$84
economics 14% −$14
finance 7% +$107
crypto 6% −$29
tech 3% −$40
world 3% −$27
culture 2% −$22
sports 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +20.1% +8.6% 58% 58% -16.2%
≤30d 25 +16.3% +5.2% 36% 36% -13.8%
≤90d 67 -30.4% -37.0% 25% 25% -43.3%
all 75 -18.6% -26.4% 33% 32% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 32% -36.4%
10% -33.4% 32% -42.5%
15% -39.9% 31% -48.0%
20% -45.8% 24% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$486
Realized−$233
Unrealized+$84
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses25 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions33
Markets (closed)75 / 109
History coverage236d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027? No 7¢ 67¢ $10 $95 +$85 (+851%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027? No 70¢ 80¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 41¢ 81¢ $26 $51 +$25 (+98%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 37¢ 36¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-15%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? No 34¢ 83¢ $10 $24 +$14 (+143%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-7%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+35%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 42¢ 29¢ $19 $13 −$6 (-31%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.00% and 6.49%? Yes 5¢ 24¢ $3 $13 +$10 (+335%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Silvia Salis be the next Prime Minister of Italy? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 60¢ 47¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $18 $6 −$12 (-65%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 42¢ 16¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 19 $10 −$6 -64%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 19 $29 +$10 +32%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $15 +$28 +190%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$10 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +238%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $5 +$56 +1120%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Fed rate hike in 2026? May 31 $51 −$6 -13%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Six Seven" be said on ICEMAN? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 12 $51 −$42 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? May 11 $16 −$15 -94%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $19 +$13 +70%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (April 27 - May 3) May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $10 +$6 +64%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Blackstone (BX) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,150 (HIGH) in June? Apr 18 $15 +$21 +142%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary electio Apr 12 $5 +$8 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 12 $5 +$5 +103%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Apr 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $99 −$98 -99%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-11-22? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bologna win on 2025-10-29? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $8 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $11 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 51¢ $35 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $43 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $4 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will United States win on 2026-06 BUY 35¢ $4 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 28¢ $5 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $5 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $14 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 6d
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 69¢ $44 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $9 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 38d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $486.43 · official $489.89 (match) · 325 history records