Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:21:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9180…5b21 crypto 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-1%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%153W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$46
weather 9% −$2
other 4% +$8
culture 1% $0
politics 1% −$2
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +1.1% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 76 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -9.9%
all 159 -0.0% -9.6% 96% 2% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -10.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -19.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -27.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$22 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses153 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)159 / 161
History coverage115d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? No 99¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Poland come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Albania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $5 $0 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026? May 16 $5 $0 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026? May 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 14? May 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma May 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 57°F or below on May May 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 13? May 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on May 13? May 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on May May 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 13? May 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on Ma May 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 12? May 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary elec May 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the top US Netflix movie this we May 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on May May 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on May 12? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 4.0% in April? May 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.9% in April? May 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 12? May 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on May 12? May 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C or higher on May 11? May 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 12? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 11? May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 11? May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on May 11? May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 11? May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 11? May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 11? May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 10? May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 10? May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on May 10? May 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 10? May 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 10? May 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 10? May 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on May 10? May 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 9? May 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 9? May 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 9? May 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 9? May 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 9? May 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or higher on May 9? May 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 9? May 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on May 9? May 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on May 9? May 09 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? BUY No 99¢ $5 57m
Will Poland come in last place at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 31d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 31d
Will Albania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY No 99¢ $5 31d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 32d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma BUY No 99¢ $5 32d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 57°F or below on May BUY No 99¢ $5 32d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 32d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 33d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on May BUY No 99¢ $5 33d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on Ma BUY No 99¢ $5 33d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on May 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 33d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 33d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on May BUY No 99¢ $5 33d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 34d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on May 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 34d
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 34d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 34d
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.9% in April? BUY No 99¢ $5 34d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 34d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on May 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 34d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C or higher on May 11? BUY No 99¢ $5 34d
Will annual inflation increase by 4.0% in April? BUY No 99¢ $5 35d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 11? BUY No 99¢ $5 35d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 35d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 11? BUY No 99¢ $5 35d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 11? BUY No 99¢ $5 35d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 11? BUY No 99¢ $5 35d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 11? BUY No 99¢ $5 35d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on May 11? BUY No 99¢ $5 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.28 · official $5.28 (match) · 340 history records