Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:46:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x917f…4e2c world 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$80 (+12%) realized +$81 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$23
other 27% +$83
politics 14% +$26
crypto 1% −$3
culture 1% −$1
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -64.5% -67.9% 33% 0% -86.2%
≤30d 3 -64.5% -67.9% 33% 0% -86.2%
≤90d 34 -7.1% -15.9% 47% 26% +2.0%
all 34 -7.1% -15.9% 47% 26% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 26% +2.0%
10% -24.0% 26% -7.8%
15% -31.3% 18% -16.7%
20% -38.1% 15% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$81
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)34 / 45
History coverage82d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $72 +$69 +97%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 27 $5 −$3 -54%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 27 $25 −$1 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 27 $10 −$10 -96%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 27 $5 −$3 -69%
Weed rescheduled by June 30? Apr 27 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Apr 27 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%? Apr 27 $20 $0 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 27 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump post "POTUS" this week on Truth Social? Apr 23 $30 +$28 +92%
Megaquake by June 30? Apr 22 $5 −$1 -11%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will 4–5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? Apr 19 $5 +$4 +82%
Wrestlefest: Cody Rhodes vs. Randy Orton Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $10 +$24 +238%
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? Apr 17 $55 +$3 +6%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 15 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this Apr 13 $25 +$6 +24%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $43 +$12 +28%
Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $14m and $15m? Apr 11 $5 $0 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 09 $50 −$8 -15%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $10 +$29 +290%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? Mar 30 $85 +$9 +10%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 202 Mar 30 $28 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Mar 26 $5 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Mar 26 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 12m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 36m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 41m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 44m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 45m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 48m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 54m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 56m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 56m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.84 · official $21.84 (match) · 384 history records