Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:58:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x917d…aa08 crypto 890 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$3,838 (+22%) realized −$1,642 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate21%200W / 755L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day430.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,710
7 days−$1,642
14 days−$1,642
30 days−$1,642
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 955 +3.5% -6.4% 21% 9% -17.2%
≤30d 955 +3.5% -6.4% 21% 9% -17.2%
≤90d 955 +3.5% -6.4% 21% 9% -17.2%
all 955 +3.5% -6.4% 21% 9% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover430.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 9% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 4% -25.1%
15% -23.5% 2% -32.3%
20% -31.0% 1% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$14 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$1,642
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses200 / 755
Open positions1
Markets (closed)955 / 890
History coverage3d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day430.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 955 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 50¢ 58¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 50¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$13 +1724%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $37 −$40 -110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $0 +$1 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $0 −$1 -557%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $38 −$41 -109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $38 −$45 -116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $38 −$41 -109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$12 +1690%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$40 -111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $37 −$41 -110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $38 −$41 -109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$4 -144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $38 −$41 -109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $38 −$41 -109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$5 -166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $38 −$41 -109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $37 −$40 -110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$10 +1282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $0 +$8 +7024%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.93 · official $15.22 (match) · 3500 history records