Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:21:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9179…2f34 crypto 1733 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,200 (-3%) realized −$4,150 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate83%1445W / 287L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day28.8pace
Fees−$802est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$4,021
crypto 28% −$877
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -21.3% -28.8% 67% 33% -12.4%
≤30d 3 -21.3% -28.8% 67% 33% -12.4%
≤90d 1732 -2.6% -11.9% 83% 26% -13.1%
all 1732 -2.6% -11.9% 83% 26% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 26% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 14% -21.4%
15% -28.0% 5% -29.0%
20% -35.1% 3% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$99 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$4,150
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses1445 / 287
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$802
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1732 / 1733
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$72
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1732 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 19¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $229 +$63 +28%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $211 +$18 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $100 −$98 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $491 −$480 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 22 $498 −$490 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner May 22 $610 +$191 +31%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Vitality.Bee (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 21 $173 −$170 -98%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Vitality.Bee - Game 2 Winner May 21 $301 +$177 +59%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Vitality.Bee - Game 1 Winner May 21 $173 −$169 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $723 +$239 +33%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 21 $609 +$114 +19%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 21 $305 +$100 +33%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner May 21 $387 +$126 +33%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 21 $355 +$30 +8%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 21 $956 −$303 -32%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 21 $407 −$400 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner May 21 $305 +$58 +19%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 20 $306 +$122 +40%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner May 20 $203 +$33 +16%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner May 20 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 19 $359 +$106 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 18 $35 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 18 $35 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 18 $35 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 18 $36 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 18 $36 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 18 $36 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 18 $36 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 18 $35 −$35 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 18 $35 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 18 $36 +$4 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 18 $35 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 18 $35 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 18 $35 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 18 $35 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 18 $35 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 18 $35 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 18 $35 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 18 $36 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 18 $36 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 18 $36 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 18 $36 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 18 $35 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 18 $35 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 18 $35 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 18 $36 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 18 $36 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 18 $36 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 19¢ $52 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $292 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 76¢ $229 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $229 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 90¢ $211 4h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 83¢ $79 5h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 7¢ $21 5h
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi BUY Weibo Gaming 54¢ $491 36d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY JD Gaming 78¢ $498 36d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $801 36d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 74¢ $610 36d
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Vitality.Bee (BO3) - LFL Playoffs BUY Vitality.Bee 69¢ $71 37d
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Vitality.Bee (BO3) - LFL Playoffs BUY Vitality.Bee 77¢ $102 37d
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Vitality.Bee - Game 2 Winner SELL Vitality.Bee 100¢ $478 37d
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Vitality.Bee - Game 2 Winner BUY Vitality.Bee 61¢ $301 37d
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Vitality.Bee - Game 1 Winner BUY Vitality.Bee 48¢ $173 37d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Dplus KIA 100¢ $962 37d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 73¢ $723 37d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA 100¢ $724 37d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 82¢ $609 37d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner SELL Anyones Legend 100¢ $405 37d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 73¢ $305 37d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner SELL Anyones Legend 100¢ $513 37d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 73¢ $387 38d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $385 38d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 90¢ $355 38d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Weibo Gaming 99¢ $360 38d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Weibo Gaming 79¢ $295 38d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 35¢ $293 38d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $661 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.12 · official $4.12 (match) · 3500 history records