Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:16:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

91
0x9178…a2b2
world · 188 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$4,730 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,410 · open −$706
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,994
Realized+$5,410
Unrealized−$706
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses80 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$469
Open positions9
Markets (closed)179 / 188
History coverage73d
Avg bet$878
Trades / day45.6
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 9 History 179 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$413
7 days−$1,324
14 days−$1,866
30 days−$2,979
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $786 $464 −$322 (-41%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 21¢ 19¢ $363 $335 −$27 (-8%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $286 $320 +$34 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $290 $290 +$0 (+0%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $266 $243 −$23 (-9%)
NATO article 5 before 2027? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $264 $150 −$114 (-43%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? No 5¢ 10¢ $47 $91 +$44 (+94%)
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $212 $82 −$131 (-62%)
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $186 $20 −$167 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $72 +$65 +91%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $174 −$16 -9%
Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $14 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $1,192 +$127 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $1,251 −$100 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $2,202 −$35 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Jun 11 $375 −$60 -16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 11 $515 +$26 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 1? Jun 11 $537 −$239 -45%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Jun 11 $69 −$52 -75%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 11 $26 −$22 -84%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 11 $30 −$24 -82%
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31? Jun 11 $77 −$57 -74%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? Jun 11 $4,492 +$405 +9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28? Jun 11 $119 −$117 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30? Jun 11 $242 −$242 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,517 +$78 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? Jun 11 $1,014 +$31 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 6? Jun 11 $263 −$245 -93%
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day Jun 11 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 Jun 11 $306 +$263 +86%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 28? Jun 11 $105 −$83 -79%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Jun 11 $2,449 −$24 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 11 $1,121 +$43 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $684 −$84 -12%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Jun 10 $13 +$7 +54%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $110 +$66 +60%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $986 −$418 -42%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? Jun 10 $39 +$3 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $940 −$309 -33%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 09 $915 +$3 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 09 $2,917 −$28 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 09 $48 −$24 -51%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 09 $1,350 −$929 -69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $8,355 −$577 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1,003 +$69 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $1,418 +$1,289 +91%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 05 $610 +$10 +2%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 04 $592 −$81 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $640 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 02 $335 −$50 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? Jun 01 $25 +$70 +280%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $284 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $593 −$208 -35%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $1,442 −$5 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $687 −$370 -54%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $1,766 +$101 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $782 +$73 +9%
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? May 28 $370 −$296 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 65% +$8,361
finance 12% −$3,901
other 11% −$391
sports 6% +$292
politics 3% −$319
tech 1% +$35
crypto 1% +$600
economics 0% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $321 3m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 5¢ $49 8m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $132 11m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 12m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 12m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $152 12m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 13m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $38 13m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 15m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 15m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $23 16m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $200 16m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 21¢ $137 16m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $363 19m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $72 19m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 24¢ $158 44m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 27¢ $46 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 26¢ $128 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $451 17h
Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $14 18h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 16¢ $218 19h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $451 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -17.0% -24.9% 42% 16% -12.7%
≤30d 73 -7.5% -16.3% 42% 16% -13.5%
≤90d 179 +17.1% +5.9% 45% 25% -6.7%
all 179 +17.1% +5.9% 45% 25% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover45.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.9% 25% -6.7%
10% -4.2% 19% -15.6%
15% ← realistic here -13.5% 14% -23.8%
20% -21.9% 11% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,994.21 · official $1,927.56 · 3500 history records