Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:10:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
91 0x9176…d962 sports 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-3%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%24W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$67
other 9% −$54
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +4.3% -5.6% 50% 44% -8.2%
≤30d 48 +4.3% -5.6% 50% 44% -8.2%
≤90d 48 +4.3% -5.6% 50% 44% -8.2%
all 48 +4.3% -5.6% 50% 44% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 44% -8.2%
10% -14.6% 42% -17.0%
15% -22.9% 38% -25.0%
20% -30.5% 31% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses24 / 24
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage6d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 87¢ 87¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $10 +$16 +162%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $30 +$11 +36%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $10 +$3 +33%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $10 +$17 +165%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $30 +$9 +29%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $20 +$2 +9%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $10 +$9 +90%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $10 +$6 +60%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $10 +$15 +146%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 20 $10 +$13 +129%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$6 +60%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $10 +$14 +138%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $10 +$2 +17%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $10 +$5 +49%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $20 −$3 -15%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $10 +$15 +146%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $10 +$12 +117%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $55 −$54 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $9 +$17 +197%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $20 −$7 -37%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 16 $10 +$17 +165%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $10 +$49 +474%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 75¢ $10 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 73¢ $30 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 38¢ $2 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 38¢ $5 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 38¢ $1 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 38¢ $2 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 37¢ $10 5h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $10 7h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 77¢ $30 7h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $10 7h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 48¢ $9 8h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 52¢ $10 10h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 40¢ $10 11h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 62¢ $10 12h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ $10 25h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 41¢ $10 26h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 43¢ $10 26h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 68¢ $10 26h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 42¢ $4 26h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 42¢ $6 26h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 85¢ $6 26h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 85¢ $4 26h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 27h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 36¢ $9 27h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 58¢ $10 29h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 52¢ $10 29h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 29h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 67¢ $9 29h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 29h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $0 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.89 · official $4.89 (match) · 98 history records