Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:05:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
91 0x9176…e1c5 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$127 (+55%) realized +$127 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +49% what you keep after slip
Net edge+49%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate78%18W / 5L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$31
14 days+$76
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$79
other 42% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+49.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +41.5% +28.0% 60% 60% +44.1%
≤30d 9 +56.9% +42.0% 78% 78% +43.6%
≤90d 23 +65.2% +49.4% 78% 78% +45.6%
all 23 +65.2% +49.4% 78% 78% +45.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +49.4% 78% +45.6%
10% +35.1% 61% +31.6%
15% +22.1% 57% +18.9%
20% +10.1% 48% +7.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt +61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +100% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.69 per $1 lost it wins $6.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$127
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses18 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage76d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 29 $10 +$15 +152%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals Jun 28 $10 +$19 +188%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $16 +$11 +67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $11 +$9 +79%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 +$6 +109%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$23 +46%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q May 21 $5 +$26 +510%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualif May 18 $5 +$14 +276%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 18 $10 +$7 +73%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +12%
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-09? May 06 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 25 $20 +$8 +40%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 24 $18 +$2 +11%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 23 $14 +$3 +24%
LoL: Galions vs Solary (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Apr 22 $8 +$6 +79%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 19 $2 +$5 +216%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Apr 18 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: Skillcamp Esport vs Solary (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Apr 18 $4 +$1 +21%
LoL: Esprit Shōnen vs Solary (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Apr 16 $3 +$1 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $10 3h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 28h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $5 47h
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $10 47h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $16 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 10d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $11 10d
Jonathan David: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $11 11d
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $5 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $74 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 13d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi BUY Weibo Gaming 42¢ $5 38d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q BUY Weibo Gaming 16¢ $5 39d
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualif BUY HANJIN BRION 26¢ $5 42d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali BUY Karmine Corp 57¢ $10 43d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 54d
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 54d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 55d
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Karmine Corp 71¢ $20 66d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $20 66d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 90¢ $18 66d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 80¢ $14 68d
LoL: Galions vs Solary (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 55¢ $8 70d
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? SELL Yes $0 72d
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? BUY Yes 90¢ $3 72d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 31¢ $2 72d
LoL: Skillcamp Esport vs Solary (BO1) - LFL Regular Season BUY Solary 82¢ $4 73d
LoL: Esprit Shōnen vs Solary (BO1) - LFL Regular Season BUY Solary 82¢ $3 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records