Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:21:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9176…5dc1 crypto 491 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$482 (+5%) realized +$482 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate60%293W / 198L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$207
7 days+$222
14 days−$357
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$392
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -6.2% -15.1% 63% 47% -5.6%
≤30d 320 -26.7% -33.6% 46% 40% -10.8%
≤90d 491 -1.8% -11.2% 60% 54% -5.1%
all 491 -1.8% -11.2% 60% 54% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 54% -5.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 45% -14.2%
15% -27.4% 38% -22.5%
20% -34.5% 26% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$482
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses293 / 198
Open positions0
Markets (closed)491 / 491
History coverage54d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 491 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $176 +$31 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $153 +$13 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 29 $66 +$14 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $67 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $38 +$53 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 28 $147 +$38 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$24 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $77 −$63 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $18 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $4 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $22 +$9 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $64 −$36 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $39 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $194 +$34 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $151 −$145 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$15 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $223 +$35 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $116 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $101 +$52 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $22 −$20 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $36 −$29 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $177 +$57 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $122 +$89 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $29 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $56 +$36 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $48 +$33 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $92 −$91 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $49 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $146 +$52 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $101 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $96 −$51 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $116 −$69 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $58 −$43 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $115 +$68 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $170 +$42 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $124 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $16 +$14 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $37 −$26 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $122 +$85 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $39 −$27 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $27 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $27 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $27 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $24 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $27 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $18 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $4 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1683 history records