Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9174…da4f crypto 548 markets active 4d ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%202W / 346L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$116
14 days+$135
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +27.8% +15.6% 59% 55% +3.4%
≤30d 372 +7.9% -2.4% 42% 40% -8.2%
≤90d 548 +4.1% -5.8% 37% 36% -13.7%
all 548 +4.1% -5.8% 37% 36% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 36% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 34% -22.0%
15% -23.1% 31% -29.5%
20% -30.6% 29% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses202 / 346
Open positions0
Markets (closed)548 / 548
History coverage52d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 548 Trades
no open positions (285 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $44 +$16 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$14 +272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$30 +562%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$9 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$18 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$18 +341%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$13 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$10 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$11 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$7 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$8 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$10 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$7 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$8 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$11 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$13 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $59 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $22 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $22 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $35 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1288 history records